Its still early with only 30% of the vote or 4 million votes counted but glaringly obvious. His momentum is simply too strong. There were some surprises where his performance was unexpectedly weak like Maasailand which seemed heavily Jubilee or Ukambani where it appeared Kambas would vote for their Kikuyu cousin Uhuru instead of a Nilote from 500 kilometers away but its simply a minor detail.
He'll win with 52-56% of the vote.Our national trajectory toward middle income status started by Kibaki can continue. On an equally happy note the endless bleating and whining without performing that accompanied Raila Odinga's time in government and is his singular style has been rejected by most Kenyans. The permanent distraction of cloud pleasing antics will now be history-the clumsy press conferences,(look at the rigging claims on the FT!) ,agent of foreigners,recall how he went to bat for France forcing out Gbagbo in Cote de Ivoire,embarassingly contradicted by both Netanyahu and Peres after an unscheduled trip to Israel for the War on Terror,publicly fought over executive exclusive toilet facilities befitting his station and yet irrevocably soiled his image with maize import scandals in his office-actually his list of amusing open air faux pas should be savoured for another day.
This post is to welcome our 4th president Uhuru Kenyatta.
Official results just in have Uhuru at just over 50% with Raila at 43%;a difference of roughly 800,000 votes. Lower than I though but good enough. As is to be expected the faux revolutionary had his team invent all manner of monkey tricks at the IEBC hall to 'prove' their claims of rigging but to no avail.
Some interesting electoral shenanigans definitely did occur,however proving the West went beyond moral support of Raila Amolo Odinga, a man whose history would convince intelligent voters not to place him within walking distance of State House.
On the first day there was a near total failure of the IEBC computer system-results couldn't be transmitted to Nairobi for tallying. Reliable reports indicate the Americans hacked the system-remember their man, Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of African Affairs on U.S ,a relatively junior officer,publicly stated there would be consequences for electing ICC indictees? Though he was immediately contradicted by his boss , Jendayi Frazier,many Kenyans felt his was the Washington voice.
As the ballot count reached day 2,well known agents of the Brits,in the person on Maina Kiai, an experienced civil society agitprop specialist began demanding the unthinkable-to include spoiled votes,the numbering 300,000 in the count,doubtless to inflate Odinga's number. That this has never happened in elections anywhere shows their determination in pushing Raila.
In the end,however the 'tyranny of numbers' was too strong. The West has accepted the inevitable-for now. They'll simply recalibrate restrategize and return with yet more tricks to gain control. For the reader unaware of exactly whats at stake,a reminder. Lamu port will be the terminal of all S.Sudanese,Ugandan,Kenyan and possibly S.Somali oil from Jubbaland(at least in the near future). When all the oil fields are at optimum capacity expect some 2mn bpd.conservatively,roughly 200 mn $ daily.
Apart from the obvious economic benefits,Kenya will escape the Western economic strait jacket,the tread mill of London/Washington bankster mandated action without progress that marks nearly the whole 3rd world.The perpetual grind of a low wage,primary exporter nation non mineral economy can be escaped.
Also the Middle East as an oil market will decrease in importance as Lamu comes of age. Ships can cut shipping times and reduce risks ultimately significantly lowering the consumer oil price,a win-win for everyone.
Verily,the stakes of this election for the Anglo jews were almost as important as those of the Kenyan voter. Uhuru,underrated by many,understands these issues better than most. Like his successor,Kibaki, the quiet Keynesian he has the will and the skills to compel Kenya to new middle income status.
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Tuesday, 5 March 2013
Friday, 26 October 2012
AFRICA'S MOST MISBEGOTTEN OFFSPRING OF NGO-LAND MUST SURELY BE....
..the Dinka of S.Sudan. For a generation they've been bathed, fed,armed,trained and diaper changed by the West who swallowed their own propaganda believing tall tales about heroic Herculean struggles against Arab slavers.
This well intended humanitarianism has created a monster of self entitlement,especially for a people dehumanised by a generation of war;who never learned the skill sets necessary for modern life but like children simply want it all-now.
In explanation some background into the recent civil war is required. In 1983 Chevron announced an oil find of almost 600 million barrels in Bentiu in what is now Unity state of the south. A few months later John Garang then an army major serving in Bor led a mutiny of disaffected Southern officers and the war that would kill an estimated 2 million had begun. Observers attempted to portray this as a selfless Gandhian step or Saul like conversion but insiders say it was a business disagreement with his Arab seniors over wildlife products including leopard skins.
Whatever the motivation,its clear he bears large responsibility for setting the template for the kind of fighting his forces fought. Entire populations were misused as pawns for food aid ,child soldiers were openly recruited and most importantly for young Dinka observers the idea that physical force equated to respect and money was born.
At the beginning most Dinka weren't interested in fighting,content to continue the same patterns of existence they'd led for millenia in the flood plains,semi deserts and savannahs of Bahr el Ghazal-cattle herding and subsistence farming. To encourage them he promised post war resettlement in the wetter regions further down south. That these lands were already settled by Kakwa,Lugbara,Madi and Nuer was never considered.
Within a year he had precipitated irrevocable splits with the Nuer when he killed their leader Col.Gach who unlike him at the time was fighting for complete independence of the South. Quickly he realised the need to control food supplies and ordered all food shipments to pass through their own NGO,the SRRA, Sudanese Rescue and Rehabilitation Association,a scandalous group of Dinka idlers who camped at the Panafric in Nairobi running up fantastic bar bills.
The West,supporting him from the get go,turned a blind eye to these blatant misdeeds even as disaffected journos gained a slightly less heroic view of the SPLA. By the late 80s they controlled the distribution of thousands of tons of food aid which was used as a tool of extortion and control. Unfriendly areas or uncommitted ethnic groups would be denied. In 1998 a 2 year drought exacerbated by 2 mn IDPs without farms caused a catastrophic famine similar to Ethiopia 84m killing at least 100,000.
Also the internecine death toll of Dinka vs Nuer/Shilluk/Anuak or internal hostilities and its easy to see how the final death toll reached 2 million. Wholesale villages were uprooted and entire regions emptied of all but wildlife as the Dinka officer core of the SPLA pursued an outright personal self aggrandisement agenda stealing cattle and kidnapping women from 'enemy tribes'. By wars end in 2005 many had taken over homes and businesses of IDPs as far as Yambio near the Congo border-and told the returnees in no uncertain terms of new realities.
On a trip to Yei in Central Equatoria,the landlady of a hotel explained her predicament. After the CPA was signed in 2005 she returned to her small abandoned hotel only to find a new owner;a Dinka colonel with the Military Police. As she tried to repossess her business she was bluntly warned off,with the officer saying,"we fought for independence." There are many such cases.
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000058859
Boys will be boys but its time the Dinkas learned the way the world works. We're practically handholding them into the 21st century,having assisted with independence last year and the signing of the CPA in 2005. Thousands are being trained here for the Civil Service and Army while soon they shall have an outlet for their oil at Lamu. Its time we played some of those cards as a lesson.
Its a forlorn hope they'll learn the game on their own without Garang,who for all his faults was a pragmatist,with the charisma to lead and control his people. Salva Kiir strikes many merely as the perfect subordinate,a natural born VP. Already Sudanese are crying out to rein in the rampant corruption;he responded like a 1980s Moi banning foreign newspapers. The ban was rescinded this week.
For the short term his position as president mirrors that of his nation. As long as the threat of Arab aggression remains he can project national angst outward;without this bogeyman the very real internal Sudanese disquiet with his Dinka dominance may prove the ultimate threat to national existence.
Already several competing militias are in the field fighting ethnic domination,corruption and land grabbing by the ruling elite.
For now the low literacy rate of 27%,the world's lowest is on his side along with general lack of awareness of State functions and hence low expectations among the citizenry. Youthful,armed discontents with genuine grievances will inevitably start the countdown.
This well intended humanitarianism has created a monster of self entitlement,especially for a people dehumanised by a generation of war;who never learned the skill sets necessary for modern life but like children simply want it all-now.
In explanation some background into the recent civil war is required. In 1983 Chevron announced an oil find of almost 600 million barrels in Bentiu in what is now Unity state of the south. A few months later John Garang then an army major serving in Bor led a mutiny of disaffected Southern officers and the war that would kill an estimated 2 million had begun. Observers attempted to portray this as a selfless Gandhian step or Saul like conversion but insiders say it was a business disagreement with his Arab seniors over wildlife products including leopard skins.
Whatever the motivation,its clear he bears large responsibility for setting the template for the kind of fighting his forces fought. Entire populations were misused as pawns for food aid ,child soldiers were openly recruited and most importantly for young Dinka observers the idea that physical force equated to respect and money was born.
At the beginning most Dinka weren't interested in fighting,content to continue the same patterns of existence they'd led for millenia in the flood plains,semi deserts and savannahs of Bahr el Ghazal-cattle herding and subsistence farming. To encourage them he promised post war resettlement in the wetter regions further down south. That these lands were already settled by Kakwa,Lugbara,Madi and Nuer was never considered.
Within a year he had precipitated irrevocable splits with the Nuer when he killed their leader Col.Gach who unlike him at the time was fighting for complete independence of the South. Quickly he realised the need to control food supplies and ordered all food shipments to pass through their own NGO,the SRRA, Sudanese Rescue and Rehabilitation Association,a scandalous group of Dinka idlers who camped at the Panafric in Nairobi running up fantastic bar bills.
The West,supporting him from the get go,turned a blind eye to these blatant misdeeds even as disaffected journos gained a slightly less heroic view of the SPLA. By the late 80s they controlled the distribution of thousands of tons of food aid which was used as a tool of extortion and control. Unfriendly areas or uncommitted ethnic groups would be denied. In 1998 a 2 year drought exacerbated by 2 mn IDPs without farms caused a catastrophic famine similar to Ethiopia 84m killing at least 100,000.
Also the internecine death toll of Dinka vs Nuer/Shilluk/Anuak or internal hostilities and its easy to see how the final death toll reached 2 million. Wholesale villages were uprooted and entire regions emptied of all but wildlife as the Dinka officer core of the SPLA pursued an outright personal self aggrandisement agenda stealing cattle and kidnapping women from 'enemy tribes'. By wars end in 2005 many had taken over homes and businesses of IDPs as far as Yambio near the Congo border-and told the returnees in no uncertain terms of new realities.
On a trip to Yei in Central Equatoria,the landlady of a hotel explained her predicament. After the CPA was signed in 2005 she returned to her small abandoned hotel only to find a new owner;a Dinka colonel with the Military Police. As she tried to repossess her business she was bluntly warned off,with the officer saying,"we fought for independence." There are many such cases.
Now its foreigners,especially Kenyans targeted.A high number of Kenyan investors in South Sudan are increasingly coming back home distressed, some having being robbed of millions of shillings investments or harassed into submission by citizens of the world’s newest State. Others have paid the ultimate price with their lives with no one held liable for the cruel murdershttp://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000064292&story_title=Opinion:%20End%20hostility%20on%20Kenyan%20investors%20in%20South%20Sudan
A Kenyan woman who was killed in South Sudan was laid to rest on Saturday in Makueni County.
Tabitha Musangi, who died on May 13, was given an emotional send off by thousands of mourners who included people from South Sudan.
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000058859
A Kenyan businesswoman has been killed in the Republic of Southern Sudan in mysterious circumstances. Pamela Atieno Abonge, 30, died on October 11 in Aweii , Southern Sudan. Atieno’s family suspects the was murdered. His brother Samuel Abonge said yesterday that his sister was shot and injured on the head and neck. He said a doctor in Southern Sudan who performed the postmortem examination told the family that Atieno had a broken skull.http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-44669/kenyan-woman-trader-killed-south-sudan
Boys will be boys but its time the Dinkas learned the way the world works. We're practically handholding them into the 21st century,having assisted with independence last year and the signing of the CPA in 2005. Thousands are being trained here for the Civil Service and Army while soon they shall have an outlet for their oil at Lamu. Its time we played some of those cards as a lesson.
Its a forlorn hope they'll learn the game on their own without Garang,who for all his faults was a pragmatist,with the charisma to lead and control his people. Salva Kiir strikes many merely as the perfect subordinate,a natural born VP. Already Sudanese are crying out to rein in the rampant corruption;he responded like a 1980s Moi banning foreign newspapers. The ban was rescinded this week.
For the short term his position as president mirrors that of his nation. As long as the threat of Arab aggression remains he can project national angst outward;without this bogeyman the very real internal Sudanese disquiet with his Dinka dominance may prove the ultimate threat to national existence.
Already several competing militias are in the field fighting ethnic domination,corruption and land grabbing by the ruling elite.
As rebel leader, late Lt. Gen. George Athor Deng admitted in an interview in March 2011, “There is no equality between Dinkas and non-Dinkas in the government of South Sudan”. He further noted that most institutions of the government of South Sudan are built on tribal dominations and there is no equality and equity between various ethnic groups that would take place without regime change in Juba.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article41947
For now the low literacy rate of 27%,the world's lowest is on his side along with general lack of awareness of State functions and hence low expectations among the citizenry. Youthful,armed discontents with genuine grievances will inevitably start the countdown.
Labels:
arab,
civil war,
dinka,
humanitarianism,
john garang,
kakwa,
lugbara,
madi,
oil,
riek machar,
salve kiir,
srra
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