THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE KISMAYU CAPTURE

As expected by informed observers the capture of Kismayu went off without a hitch.On Thursday night an airborne unit,the 40th Ranger Strike Force staged a night low level drop,while a company of KN marines deployed from the sole Landing Ship Personnel, KNS Galana early Friday supported by 4 gunboats and landed on the beaches on 11m rigid inflatables to scant resistance.
 http://youtu.be/cfSsxQuWDB8
The first 30 seconds show Kenyan Marines practicing for the beach assault. Real footage will likely be released only after extensive debrief.

For those expecting a Hollywood style explosive entry into the port city complete with falling HE artillery rounds and hovering gunships,with guns clattering,accompanied by a corresponding collateral casualty count it was anti climactic. It was a slowly-slowly operation that incrementally increased forces in theatre til even ALS accepted reality and saw further resistance was pointless. The new Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud delayed the final assault,reaching out to Somali factions encouraging defections and surrenders while at the same time refusing point blank any negotiation with the foreign Islamist faction of ALS.
The endgame of the military phase has now begun. Though still rather early for a post script,some conclusions can be drawn. The winners are of course the Southern Somali people freed from terror who may now establish a new state,Azania,the Kenya government which has now protected its eastern flank (and the 23 bn$ trans continental Lamu port project a scant 10 km from Somalia) from terrorists and the KDF. They followed the basic maxim of any military force,viz,don't lose a war, receiving  praise from hitherto unimportant quarters;Kenyan civilians have never understood their role til this operation and in this new constitutional dispensation the KDF won't have to fight too hard to receive their allocations.
The losers are obvious,the international Al Qaeda and their Somali wanna bes,along with the Anglojews. Their pretensions as the sole bringers of peace and development have been shattered and both Uncle Sam and Johnny Brit are scrambling for relevance. Remember the sudden Somali Peace Conference in London in February?
The incursion took them totally by surprise as can be seen from the pique in their various semi official news agencies and think tanks.

 Faced with al-Shabab’s well-armed, experienced and more numerous guerrillas – fighters who two years ago saw off a far fiercer, better trained and bigger Ethiopian force – Kenya’s soldiers seem headed for deadlock at best and, at worst, bloody defeat

Read more: http://world.time.com/2011/10/19/kenya-invades-somalia-does-it-get-any-dumber/#ixzz27rZSjbLQ

The Somali President has declared the invasion “not welcome”, and commentators have argued that it risks uniting the Islamists at a time that they were splintering. J Peter Pham of the Atlantic Council think tank stated that the operation appears to be based “merely on an emotional reaction,” and that despite recently waning popular support for the Islamists, this operation allows them “to once again rally Somalis around them under the banner of nationalism.”

 http://crisisproject.org/kenyas-misguided-invasion-of-somalia/

 Considering the small size, poor condition and inexperience of Kenya’s fighter force, it’s perhaps surprising that the F-5s have been so busy over Somalia. But there are signs that the high operational tempo is taking a toll. Two F-5s reportedly collided and crashed near Kismayo last week. And an F-5 mistakenly bombed Somali refugees at a camp also near Kismayo, reportedly killing five civilians.

 http://www.offiziere.ch/?p=6767

 Kenya’s air force is notoriously inexperienced and dilapidated, even by the modest standards of East African air arms. The air force possessed roughly 18 U.S.-built F-5 jet fighters dating from the 1970s, two of which have already been destroyed in the Somalia fighting.

 http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/11/kenya-tweets-air-raids/

But this takes the cake for sheer arrogance and neocolonial presumption!

  Western diplomats in Nairobi said they had not been informed of the decision to enter the port city.  !??

 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/islamist-group-may-lose-its-final-somalian-stronghold-8190457.html?origin=internalSearch
Basically amusing,insulting and contemptuous  dismissals of what was actually a well thought out campaign fought by a well equipped and led force. Few first world nations have had recent success in 3rd world counter insurgencies.Careful observers will also note London trying to insert itself into the successful narrative of the Kismayu capture,an unusually unsubtle attempt on their part,perhaps indicative of Foreign Office mandarins concerns,(we all know they fund the Aunt Beeb,don't we?).

 Checkpoints have been set up on the main road north of Kismayo, with one eyewitness telling the BBC that the AU forces appeared to include white troops

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19754639

Already,informed observers are seeing a replication of the Somali operation further away in a more challenging environment of verdant jungles,myriad militias and mineral wealth of biblical proportions-an Eastern DRC incursion, pacification and an open ended occupation. The political processes involving local churches and civil societies,trying to catch Nairobi's eye to invite a robust military force and end the fighting which has killed at least 5mn since 1998, in what must surely be the most unlucky place in the world is well underway.
Watch this space.


http://karanjazplace.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-war-in-somalia.html

http://karanjazplace.blogspot.com/2012/08/finallythe-kns-jasiri-arrives.html

THE WAR IN SOMALIA-UPDATE!!

Kenya's first external large scale military operation kicked off in early October last year. Apart from foreign peace keeping missions and small cross border policing actions at maybe the company level against cattle rustlers,bandits or poachers,Operation linda nchi is to date the largest at over a reinforced brigade.
As soon as the first KDF infantry boots crossed the border Western 'experts' ,their media outlets and tame local NGOs immediately predicted doom and humiliation. Everybody from Museveni,Zenawi, Newsweek,Time,the Independent,to the Atlantic Monthly and even wired.com wailed wringing their hands about a poor,corrupt 3rd world country with an untrained unprepared army invading another 3rd world country.This unprompted media backlash informed the more thoughtful observers Kenya acted unilaterally without informing their 'development partners,'who were thus properly peeved.
The KDF brass actually planned such an operation just after Somalia's slide to the abyss in the early 90s with several supporting goals:stabilise the bordering NE Province,establish a friendly buffer state to be called either Jubbaland or Azania,end the endless river of war victims and IDPs who have now turned Dadaab refugee camp into the worlds largest and cut off the flow of illegal weapons flooding Kenya .
Contrary to the standard explanations it wasn't a  handful of kidnapped tourists but rather the start of Africa's biggest ever infrastructure project,a railroad/oil pipeline from Lamu to S.Sudan,with the rail link reaching the CAR and eventually Cameroon that forced the Kibaki government to act. Lamu is a scant 10 kms from the border and the 23 bn$ investment demanded cast iron security.

Casualties,to the dismay of numerous naysayers have been remarkably low at under 30 KIA for a force of roughly 1600,though ALS have lost hundreds which has not astonished those with regional military/security experience. The majority of these 'experts,'including Kenyans are unaware this is the army's second real shooting war,again with the same foe. Just after independence Kenyan Somalis clamoured to join their kin against the border. When attempts at amalgamation of the 90% majority Somali NEP were refused they began a secession attempt lasting 5 years that became known as the shifta war. Like all Somali attempts at armed aggression it was brutal but not a success.  After a peace treaty was signed in 1967 the defeated insurgents resorted to simple banditry causing a long running security problem throughout the NEP that only ended a decade or so ago.

As of now the KDF seems to be impatient with the political dictates of engaging putative Jubbaland leaders and is stepping up the pace. The entire border strip is under control along with upper and lower Jubba,an area of some 120,000 km2. Kismayu port,ALS HQ,the prize is surrounded with all nearby towns pacified. Piracy has declined drastically with 46 reported attacks this year against 222 the whole of 2011:In June Matt Hipple made his case in this blog that international naval operations had little or nothing to do with the current decline in piracy.  He argued that the Kenyan invasion of Somalia and continued operations by the multi-national forces of AMISOM, as well as armed private security forces onboard commercial vessels were the decisive factors behind the recent drop in pirate attacks.

 http://cimsec.org/who-defeated-the-somali-pirates/
The operation, still incomplete is in its final stages which will unfold as inevitably as Friday follows Thursday. The majority of Somalis in the south are tired of famine and bloodletting brought about by the ALS version of Islam who in a strange move even banned wearing of bras in their territory along with other medieval diktats beyond the scope of this post! In pacified areas the people themselves provide intel and often unmask enemy hideouts improving security which has seen the return of aid agencies who had long fled terrorist hegemony. In these areas at least,the KDF has definitely turned the corner.
Related:http://karanjazplace.blogspot.com/2012/08/finallythe-kns-jasiri-arrives.html

Contrary to the 'expert' opinion about the dangers posed to the tourism industry by Al Shabab terrorists or the the Kenya government was 'ordered' into Somalia by the West here is the real reason. The Lamu Port South Sudan railway. As you can see  the implications are massive-it will develop the much marginalised North of Kenya and much much more. 

 The project has the same implications along its route. It will open up the CAR,one of the worlds most  remote places.

In fact  LAPSSET is actually of global importance. N America and Asia will access each others markets faster via the land bridge.

Dear Reader,who do you think will lose once the project is operational?